Rumination: Lockdown 2.0

Pandemic Thoughts - November 2020

The Following is for Reference Only, the 2020 Summary will follow in a Month from Now.

On December 2nd, the second National Lockdown to attempt to arrest the resurgent spread of Covid infections came to an end, and even after four weeks of renewed restrictions and attempts at containment, I'm still not entirely sure what to make of it, with most of my most substantial thoughts having been shared at its outset, as it hasn't seen me get out of work, predictably enough, and aside from having no opportunity to travel away to visit Mum, it had no other impact on my plans which mostly involved hibernating my weekends away at the onset of the Dark Season. I'm sure all those involved with the hospitality, leisure and non-essential retail sectors will have really felt the sting of it, especially after so many weeks of mixed messaging from those who would govern us ahead of the inevitable, but being in the business I'm in, and having so little social interaction beyond my familiar circle, I really can't make any more useful observations beyond the facts of trains into Leeds being noticeably quieter in the mornings, but inexplicably busier in the evenings. It's not been an experience anything like the first national lockdown though, where most businesses shut down and so many people were effectively confined to their homes for two months, as this time around schools have stayed open, and suffered all the fluctuations in attendance and operations that might have been expected when operating through a pandemic, while there have been a lot more retailers opened up and offices not doing nearly as much working from home as before. I'm sorry that I can't report anything personally in more detail, but my attitude towards self-protection during this crisis means that I've been witness to so very little, and can only really reflect on what I've learned through the usual methods of reportage, such as noting that the Covid infection rate dropped by 30% during the past month, which is a substantial drop and not a stat to be taken too lightly, but it feels less like a good reason to return to normality than a reason to get everything back to normal, than a cue to keep things shut down for another month to arrest the spread further. It's certainly discouraging to see the increasing infection rate in school age kids, and the dangers that it presents to families nationally, and for the first time in months we've started to look seriously at the death rate again, which HM Government had massaged down to 41,000 at the start of July, but has since risen to 60,000, presenting the horrifying reality of this second wave, with the ONS suggesting that the rate should be revised significantly upwards again to reflect all the indirectly caused deaths that have occurred due to medical access restrictions during the months of pandemic conditions.

The most reportable illumination that has come my way is from work, and the fact of being in the midst of an emergency staff cover in the Paediatric Oncology dept over the last two weeks, which has been a distinct change of pace from my regular position on the Medical Records department, giving me plenty of activity over the course of the days rather than the rather one-dimensional and sedentary role which I've been in since August, and a restored feeling of purpose in my work that I haven't enjoyed in a long while. Talking of goings on in the hospital isn't the wisest of businesses, naturally, but it's the first insight I've been allowed into just how the trust is operating at the front line since the start of the Pandemic, and it seem that the Day Unit is just forging on ahead as they ever would, still maintaining the positive demeanours and outlooks necessary, along with all the hygiene concerns and practices that you'd have in normal circumstances, when dealing with all the awful issues of treating kids that are suffering through cancer treatments. Still, the medical news that we can really get behind is the news of two vaccine breakthroughs being made, with results of both the Pfizer-Biontech and Oxford University-AstraZeneca clinical trials showing up an efficacy of between 90 and 95%, which naturally has many trumpeting a breakthrough in the fights against the Coronavirus, with HM Government ready to approve both for a national vaccination program roll-out as soon as is plausible, while the WHO are eager to stress caution as to rapid widespread usage. Sadly, the response from too many people in the real world is one of unnecessary amounts of cynicism, either concerned by the wisdom of the use of a vaccine that has been hurriedly tested by Big Pharma companies that are only interested in making a fast buck, or believing that the vaccines could be potentially dangerous to health and well-being of many, after such a relatively short turnaround, and that's without considering the ridiculous conspiracy theories that are flying around too, all to easily propagated by the terminally paranoid or stupid. It's enough to elicit a heavy sigh from me, as if everyone wants an end to the pandemic but can't actually face down the reality of what it's going to take to actually bring it about, and the amateur virologist in me wants to explain that Covid-19 isn't a virus and disease that has come from out of nowhere, as it's well know to be an SARS variant that epidemiologists will have known and studied, even before it arrived among the human population a year ago, and the science of vaccine development really knows what its doing, with the greatest risk being that it's not actually as effective as initially hoped.

So, if vaccination is to begin in the next month or so, we otherwise find ourselves deposited back into HM Government's tier system to wait until then, and as West Yorkshire goes straight back into the high alert Tier 3, there doesn't immediately feel like there's been any immediate change in the wake of restrictions being eased, as the pubs and restaurants are still closed and the number of people travelling on the trains doesn't feel any different, and once again I feel like my perspective on presenting the effects of lockdown is pretty useless as my daily routine of working in The Dark Season remains virtually unchanged. Naturally, there are ripples of discontent elsewhere, especially among the representatives of many of the shire counties, who feel hard done by at being released into Tier 2 due to the still elevated infection rates in the towns and cities, claiming it's not fair that their businesses and rural citizens should suffer the restrictions when it's the town and cities that are afflicted by the high infection rates, seemingly ignoring the issues that come with people moving across tiers to use services, regardless of wisdom and permissiblity. As I've already said, it feels like to many people seem to forget that there's still a global pandemic happening, and that the only part of the UK in Tier 1, namely Cornwall, has a unique situation that isolates itself from an excess of transient traffic, and our immediate future in the rest of the country look like it will have to involve taking a protective attitude as three weeks of raw commerce start as the nation tries to shop ahead of Christmas, for which we've all been granted a five day bubble to associate with family, which ought to at least allow a brief weekend of getting our three branches together as carefully as is possible. So semi-hibernation will continue for me at least, feeling slightly warmed by the other major news that came out of this last month, which has been the final fall of grace of that Clarence Boddicker-looking guy that was one of the most hated government advisors of recent times, canned not for his flouting of lockdown rules in the Spring, but more for his organisational style rubbing up too many people the wrong way in a time of national crisis, which is odd when he was deemed to important to fire some months ago. Of course, his departure really comes far too late for the good of the country, as he was mostly responsible for taking us all in the direction of leaving the EU, and with the transition period due to end at the end of this month, it looks like he'll not be on the scene to see what happens if a trade deal isn't hammered out by then, thus avoiding any blame if it all goes pear shaped, which seems a real possibility as most of the negotiations news seems to suggest both parties are happily blaming each other for the lack of progress in their talks.

Still, the real news and focus of attention for the last month for the most of us has been somewhere else entirely, as we regard the shenanigans across the pond in the wake of the US presidential election, the definitive 'election of a generation', which has dragged on since polling closed on November 3rd, when a much closer than anticipated result was projected, with the election day counts even placing the incumbent ahead in all the key swing states, resulting in him giving a victory speech long before the counts were completed. However, the psephological phenomena known as the Red Mirage and the Blue Shift came into play as the counts continued, as postal votes started to be tallied, which had significantly increased in number due to the Covid pandemic and also massively favoured the challenger, gradually erasing the deficits and then overtaking the president's leads in multiple battleground states, resulting in the media declaring his victory based on their projections on 7th November. In a normal year, this would probably have resulted in a presidential concession of the the election, but as this is 2020, the outcome is that the president starts pushing his narrative of postal voting equating massive electoral fraud against him, which he has promoted for months in the lead up to the election, and having attempted to have multiple counts stopped (and some continued), he instead starts a campaign of funding recounts in multiple states, and pursuing numerous claims of procedural irregularities and illegal voting arrangements in the swing states in the courts. At the turn of the month, all of these have failed, mostly having been thrown out at the initial hearing stage, and watching the president behaving like the delusional narcissist that so many have believed him to be for many years is a most unedifying spectacle and he continues to declare fraud and refuse to start the transition of power after the outcome of election confirms his defeat in national vote and the electoral college, and it's saddening to see just how many Americans are still supporting him, as over 70 million voted to continue the appalling presidency that he has overseen. Perhaps we should take some comfort that so many voted against it, in record numbers, but no one viewing this election from without could have imagined that it would have been as close as it proved to be, expecting something more like a 35-15 state split and watching the president eat shit on election night, instead of watching a tense month of court challenges, mandated recounts and the espousal of conspiracy theories that have not shown up a single fragment of viable evidence of electoral fraud. This president's defeat, and his challenger's elevation should be providing a cheering capper at the end of this garbage year, but the reality is that I merely feel numb, as if the last five years have really beaten at my ability to feel hopeful and all I can respond with is a feeling of slightly reduced pessimism for the future, especially as there's still the obstacles of the state certification deadline, and the sitting of the electoral college to traverse in the coming month, while this headcase continues to hold presidential power, and considerable political and popular support in his delusions, for another seven weeks.

Next Up: So, what have we learned in 2020?